Category Archives: Growth Projections

Seven Signs your Startup will Succeed

Banded Snake Eagle, Ubuntu, TanzaniaMatthew Toren wrote a terrific article 7 Myths About Starting a Business That I Used to Believe. In it he debunks 7 myths about startups that could otherwise easily deter those with a great idea that don’t know any better. With these myths debunked, let’s talk about the seven signs that indicate your startup will be among the 50% that survive 5 years.

1. You Know Your Competition

Key to a product being successful in the market is that customers see it as a better solution to their pain than alternatives offered by the competition.

Better can be mean lower priced, or more convenient, faster, cleaner, greener, more exclusive, more reliable, and so on. These qualities are called differentiators.

I use the word competition here in the broadest possible sense, including companies that are directly competing with you (e.g., Avis if you are Hertz), companies that are indirectly competing with your company (e.g., bus companies if you are a rental car company), and the status quo (e.g., people who are not traveling because of the lack of transportation options).

2. You Know Your Financials

Lean is the only way to start most companies today, but prudent does not mean blind. Responsible lean companies document all their business assumption so they can run experiments to validate those assumptions and incrementally lower risk. Those same documented assumptions are also sufficient to create pro forma financial statements.

Those financial statements enable you to determine whether the company could succeed if the assumptions prove to be true.

3. You Have Room for Error

Pilots always have enough fuel to return to an airport, and always use a runway longer than is required for their aircraft type. Having room to navigate the unexpected is also crucial for startups because inevitably one, some or even all of these things will happen:

  • Fewer visitors will come to your website
  • Customer acquisition cost will be higher than planned
  • Revenues will be lower than expected
  • Customers won’t pay on time
  • Materials, raw goods, and services will cost more than budgeted

4. Your Sales Are Planned Bottom Up

If you guess at your projected revenues, you are not setting up your startup for success. Instead, determine how you are going to sell. For example:

  • Are you going to drive traffic to your website and then convert x% of the visitors to paying customers?
  • Are you going to make x outgoing sales calls per day, and convert y% of them to paying customers?

See the article, 5 Steps to Get & Keep Your Startup on Track, to learn how to calibrate your revenue projections.

5. Your Experiments Are Planned

After you state your assumptions, run experiments to validate (or refute) them. Either way, you are making progress. Knowledge is always better than guesswork.

For example, run advertisements and perform SEO and see how many actual visitors you can drive to your website. Run A/B tests on various pricing models to see what price attracts customers.

6. You Have an External Board

If you put your co-founders and/or your officers on your board of directors, you will receive zero benefit from them; after all, you’ll hear the same things from them in the board room that you hear every other day.

Instead, fill your board seats with experienced individuals who (a) can offer you different opinions, (b) can bring skills that your current team does not have, (c) are not afraid to question the decisions you are making, and (d) can serve as a totally independent sounding board for you.

This is what a board of directors can do for you. And then compensate them with stock options.

7. You Are Sharing Ownership

Jerry Kaplan said it best: “Equity is like sh*t. If you pile it up, it just smells bad. But if you spread it around, lots of wonderful things grow.” Incent those who contribute to the success of your startup with stock options (or reverse vesting stock), and the company is more likely to grow and prosper. There is little downside, and lots of upside. See You are Not Your Company for more details on this subject.

Summary

Starting a company has inherent risks. But some risks are easy to reduce by planning, validating, refining, pivoting and then doing it all again!

I recently visited JoJo, a young woman in Kigali, Rwanda who started a Jibu water franchise. During my hour-long visit with her, I asked her a dozen or so questions. I was impressed by the fact that although she had little formal business education, she had tons of business common sense, understood what her biggest risks were, knew how to reduce those risks, and understood which levers influenced the success of her franchise.

I have no doubt that she will be one of the long-term survivors. JoJo knows how to make a startup succeed! In her case, she knows her competition, knows her financials, has room for error, knows exactly how she is going to sell water, and is constantly running marketing experiments. Although she does not have an external board of directors, she has surrounded herself with individuals with lots of experience.

If you want to learn how to generate pro forma financial statements automatically from your lean business assumptions, check out www.offtoa.com.

About the Author:

Dr. Al Davis has published 100+ articles in journals, conferences and trade press, and lectured 2,000+ times in 28 countries. He is the author of 6 books, including the latest, Will Your New Start Up Make Money? He is co-founder and CEO of Offtoa, Inc., an internet company that assists entrepreneurs in crafting their business strategies to optimize financial return for themselves and their investors. Formerly, he was founding member of the board of directors of Requisite, Inc., acquired by Rational Software Corporation in 1997, and subsequently acquired by IBM in 2003; co-founder, chairman and CEO of Omni-Vista, Inc.; and vice president at BTG, Inc., a Virginia-based company that went public in 1995, acquired by Titan in 2001, and subsequently acquired by L-3 Communications in 2003.

If you’d like to learn if your great business idea will make money, take a look atWill Your New Start Up Make Money? If you’d like to verify that your great business idea makes financial sense, sign up for www.offtoa.com.

7 Steps to Calibrating Your Startup Growth

640px-Mahr_Micromar_40A_0-25mm_MicrometerWhen you start a company you naturally have two immediate and equally pressing priorities.  Those priorities are to solve a problem for customers and to validate that you can make money solving that problem.

To validate that you can make money and to understand when you’ll make it, you need to build a pro forma income statement. A pro forma income statement shows how much revenue you expect to receive from the sale of your product and what expenses you expect to incur over your first few years of doing business.

Three basic approaches exist to predict startup revenues:

  • You can just guess. But beware!  Nobody will believe the numbers.
  • You can estimate that you will achieve some percentage penetration of the total available market. Sadly, nobody will believe these numbers either.
  • You can determine which processes you will use to achieve sales, estimate how efficient those processes will be, and then derive how much revenue you will achieve based on those assumptions.

This article explains how to do startup revenue estimation using the third approach. It involves the calibration of seven key variables.  You’ll start with the initial estimation of the seven key variables and then refine them as you learn actual values.

The Seven Key Variables:

  1. Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC): For those new customers that you attract as the result of your marketing activities, how much does it cost you per customer? This is one of the most difficult to estimate. You will start with just a guesstimate based on the (very) few published data from other companies in industries similar to yours and using sales techniques similar to yours.
  2. Sales Cycle (SC): How many months transpire between your expenditure of marketing dollars and the acquisition of new customers? This will also be just a guesstimate based on your past experience.
  3. Average Order Size (AOS): How much revenue do you expect to generate each time a customer makes a purchase? You should have a pretty good idea of what you want to achieve here based on your product, pricing, and business model.
  4. Periodicity (P): How often will each customer make a purchase? You should have a pretty good idea of what you want to achieve here based on your product, pricing, and business model.
  5. Retention Rate (RR): What percent of existing customers will remain customers at the end of each year?
  6. Viral Coefficient (VC): How many people will each existing customer attract and successfully convert into new customers? This is a one-time conversion; once a customer refers this many new customers, we assume they no longer refer more new customers. Very few companies achieve a VC as high as 1.0.
  7. Viral Cycle Length (VCL): How many days will transpire between customers becoming new customers and their referrals becoming new customers?

Before you launch your company, verify that the estimates you’ve made for the 7 key growth drivers could result in a successful company. That is, there must be significant revenues and profit, and solid returns for all shareholders to be considered successful. If not, realistically adjust the values until the company shows returns. But don’t just change the values to make the company look like it will be successful; the new values must be achievable!

Refine the Seven Key Variables:

After launch, every month, compare your actuals to your planned values for the 7 key growth drivers. Enter actual values for CAC, SC, AOS, P, RR, VC, and VCL into your plan. It might be helpful to graph each one. You will likely find that

  1. CAC and SC will start off quite large and will only converge to stable (and lower) values after you learn how to find your target market and how to optimize your messaging.
  2. You will not be able to ascertain actual values for RR, VC or VCL until after a year or so.

Verify that the actual values for these 7 key growth drivers still result in a successful company – i.e., significant revenues and profits, and solid returns for all shareholders. If so, you are on track! If not, you need to pivot.

How to Change Actual Values for the Seven Key Variables:

  • To decrease CAC and SC: Improve your understanding of the target market. Hone your advertisements to the specific pains of your target markets. Focus on benefits rather than features of your products. Offer better pricing or better promotions to increase close rates.
  • To increase AOS: Offer quantity discounts. Improve your product.
  • To increase P: Offer frequent buyer programs. Improve your product.
  • To increase RR: Improve your product’s stickiness.
  • To increase VC and decrease VCL: Offer referral programs, especially ones that incent both referrer and new customer. Make products so exciting that they create a buzz. Add features that increase your product’s value to customers.

Summary:

As you can see, these seven key variables are fundamental to understanding your startup’s revenue. They are not easy to estimate, but you can at least determine during the planning stage what values you must achieve to be a viable company.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

Alan DavisDr. Al Davis has published 100+ articles in journals, conferences and trade press, and lectured 2,000+ times in 28 countries. He is the author of 6 books, including the latest, Will Your New Start Up Make Money? He is co-founder and CEO of Offtoa, Inc., an internet company that assists entrepreneurs in crafting their business strategies to optimize financial return for themselves and their investors. Formerly, he was founding member of the board of directors of Requisite, Inc., acquired by Rational Software Corporation in 1997, and subsequently acquired by IBM in 2003; co-founder, chairman and CEO of Omni-Vista, Inc.; and vice president at BTG, Inc., a Virginia-based company that went public in 1995, acquired by Titan in 2001, and subsequently acquired by L-3 Communications in 2003.
Photograph of CoverIf you’d like to learn if your great business idea will make money, take a look at Will Your New Start Up Make Money? If you’d like to verify that your great business idea makes financial sense, sign up for www.offtoa.com.

Startups: When Will You Be Profitable?

When Profitable PhotoAs the founder of a startup company, you should be able to determine when you will be profitable. But how can you do that before you even start?

The answer is you need to make some assumptions. In fact, you need to make many assumptions. It is very important to record all these assumptions because during the first few months of your company, you will have to create experiments that validate whether or not these assumptions are true.

So the first step in determining when you will be profitable is recording all your assumptions. See my earlier blog, What Assumptions Does an Entrepreneur Make, for a sample list of such assumptions.

The second step is to create a pro forma income statement based on those assumptions. If you are not familiar with what an income statement is, see my earlier blog, Seven Things an Income Statement Tells You.

The third and last step is to examine the row of the income statement labeled EBITDA (Earnings before Interest, Tax, Depreciation, and Amortization) from left to right looking for the first entry that is positive. If that entry is in the second column, then the answer is you will be profitable in the second year of your business. If it is in the third column, then the third year, and so on.

Most startups are not profitable in their first year. This is because of high starting expenses, as well as the inevitable high cost of goods sold associated with low volume sales. So, if your assumptions show you as profitable in year #1, you may want to rethink your assumptions. And if you are seeking investment capital, I can assure you that investors will look more favorably upon your enterprise if you show realistic numbers, not overly optimistic ones.

 

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

Alan DavisDr. Al Davis has published 100+ articles in journals, conferences and trade press, and lectured 2,000+ times in 28 countries. He is the author of 6 books, including the latest, Will Your New Start Up Make Money? He is co-founder and CEO of Offtoa, Inc., an internet company that assists entrepreneurs in crafting their business strategies to optimize financial return for themselves and their investors. Formerly, he was founding member of the board of directors of Requisite, Inc., acquired by Rational Software Corporation in 1997, and subsequently acquired by IBM in 2003; co-founder, chairman and CEO of Omni-Vista, Inc.; and vice president at BTG, Inc., a Virginia-based company that went public in 1995, acquired by Titan in 2001, and subsequently acquired by L-3 Communications in 2003.
Photograph of CoverIf you’d like to learn if your great business idea will make money, take a look at Will Your New Start Up Make Money? If you’d like to verify that your great business idea makes financial sense (and also as a tool to transform your assumptions into financial statements), sign up for www.offtoa.com.

Mine

Five Fatal Flaws in Financials

One of the first and most important steps to take before you launch your startup company is to create pro forma financial statements to verify that your company makes financial sense if all the assumptions that you are making end up becoming true.

The three pro forma financial statements we will be referring to are the income statement, cash flow statement, and the balance sheet.

Three types of “financial sense” can be derived from the above financial statements:

  • Fatal flaws: These are conditions in your financial statements that indicate that the company cannot survive. These are the subjects of this blog.
  • Universal non-investible flaws: These are conditions in your financial statements that make it highly unlikely that any right-minded investor would consider investing in your endeavor. The presence of universal non-investible flaws implies that the company could survive but will not produce extremely good financial returns.
  • Situation-specific flaws: These are conditions in your financial statements that may or may not preclude good financial returns, depending on the specific industry or unique situation.

Fatal Flaw 1. Negative Cash

The bottom line of every column of the monthly cash flow statement is always labeled “Cash at End of Period.” It tells you (based on all the assumptions you have made about your company) how much cash you will have in your company’s bank account at the end of every month.

No entry in this row can be negative.

If some column has a negative value in this row, you must do something to your assumptions prior to this month, for example (these are just four of dozens of possibilities),

  • Get a loan
  • Raise money in an investment round
  • Sell more product
  • Spend less money (on expenses)

What you cannot do is just launch the company and hope that things will work out. Hope is not a strategy. The fact is many things will change once you launch, but you have to at least start with a plan that has a fighting chance of working.

Fatal Flaw 2: Negative Gross Profit

Near the top of every column of the annual income statement will be lines for

Revenues
– Cost of goods sold      
Gross profit

Gross margins indicate how efficient the company is at acquiring and using raw mate­rials for its products. Different industries tend to experience radically different gross margins based on (a) inherent cost of goods sold within those industries, and (b) level of price competition.

Your company can tolerate a negative gross profit in its first year while you figure out pricing, find best suppliers, and hone manufacturing and internal processes. However, by year 2, you had better have a positive gross profit.

New companies rarely emerge in industries where gross margins are low. Reasons should be obvious: investors will likely not see a return on their investment based on an ROE calculation.

Here are some ideas on how to increase gross margins:

  • Decrease cost of raw materials. This is the most straightforward method to reduce cost of goods sold, and yet it is the most dangerous because of potential to adversely affect product quality.Some ways are: (a) find alternative suppliers, (b) replace expensive components with less costly substitute components, especially when customers are unlikely to perceive the difference, (c) use less of a raw material in your product, and (d) purchase in larger volumes
  • Outsource, insource, offshore, or onshore. Find the lowest cost source of doing tasks while still maintaining acceptable levels of quality.
  • Increase prices.
  • Change the product. If your product cannot be sold profitably, consider selling a simpler product that solves fewer customer problems and price it lower. Or consider selling a larger product that addresses more customer pains and price it higher. Or maybe you should rent or lease the product instead of selling it?

Fatal Flaw 3: Insufficient Cash from Operations

The top third of the annual cash flow statement captures cash flows in or out of the company that result from the core business of the company. The bottom line of every column of this top third is always labeled “Net Cash Provided (Used) by Operating Activities.” It tells you (based on all the assumptions you have made about your company) how much cash the company’s business is generating without the contributions of loans, investments, or sales of property.

Almost all startups experience negative cash from operations for the first few years. During this time, they rely on infusions of cash from external sources such as investments or loans.

However, a successful company must at some point be self-sufficient; it must be able to sustain itself with being on life support.

It is possible that a high-growth company with a huge market could plan to stay on a high-growth trajectory for many years and continue to need capital infusions to fund its growth. So, I guess the best way to describe this fatal flaw is to ask if the cash from operations would be positive if the cash from financing were set to zero.

Fatal Flaw 4: Current Ratio Less than One

On the annual balance sheet, divide current assets by current liabilities for each year. This current ratio gives you a pretty good indication of whether your company will be in a condition to pay off debt when it becomes due.

A value less than 1.0 indicates that the company is going to have problems, although there could be short-term fixes for short-term problems. As your company evolves, your current ratio should become (and remain) above 1.2.

If your current ratio is less than zero, it means your current assets are negative (current liabilities can never be negative), so this is equivalent to fatal flaw 1.

Fatal Flaw 5: No Profit

Near the bottom of every column of the annual income statement is a row labeled “EBITDA,” short for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization. You can think of it as the company’s profit (without some of the “noise”).

Most startups experience negative EBITDA for the first one or two years, and that is okay. In fact, it is highly unlikely to have positive EBITDA during those first few years.

However, by year three or so, EBITDA should be positive, and stay positive for the remaining years.

Summary

Although many dozens of potential problems can be detected in advance by examining the pro forma financial statements, the above five conditions are easy to detect and are almost always fatal for your company if not fixed. If you find them to be present in your company’s financial statements before you launch, don’t launch! Instead, fix your plan.

After you fix the plan, and know that it is possible to succeed, then launch the company. It is always good to start knowing that failure is not guaranteed.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

Dr. Al Davis has published 100+ articles in journals, conferences and trade press, and lectured 2,000+ times in 28 countries. He is the author of 6 books, including the latest, Will Your New Start Up Make Money? He is co-founder and CEO of Offtoa, Inc., an internet company that assists entrepreneurs in crafting their business strategies to optimize financial return for themselves and their investors. Formerly, he was founding member of the board of directors of Requisite, Inc., acquired by Rational Software Corporation in 1997, and subsequently acquired by IBM in 2003; co-founder, chairman and CEO of Omni-Vista, Inc.; and vice president at BTG, Inc., a Virginia-based company that went public in 1995, acquired by Titan in 2001, and subsequently acquired by L-3 Communications in 2003.

If you’d like to learn if your great business idea will make money, take a look at Will Your New Start Up Make Money? If you’d like to verify that your great business idea makes financial sense, sign up for www.offtoa.com.

When should you ask for investments?

1024px-Wonderland_Walker_2A successful startup company needs to create a sustainable growth model using paid, viral, and sticky strategies. However, before it gets there, a startup usually needs some cash investments to get things going.

Let’s say you have performed a financial analysis of your startup company and have determined that you will need $1M to keep it afloat until it can sustain itself.

When should you raise the $1M? No simple answer exists. In general, the longer you wait to raise any round of investments,

  1. The higher your valuation is likely to be because you have likely reached more milestones, like generating more revenue, obtaining more partners, producing more product, and so on. The higher the valuation, the less of the company you will have to “give away” to investors for a given amount of money.
  2. The higher risk you have of running of cash, so unscrupulous investors could take advantage of you by delaying their investment decision until you are desperate, thus forcing you to accept a lower valuation.

Some advisors will tell you to ask for all the money you need at one time because the investment-seeking process is so time-consuming that you want to do it as infrequently as possible. Get it over with at one time so you don’t have to do it again.

Some advisors will tell you to always raise more than you need because you have probably been overly optimistic in many of your predictions, and you want the cash cushion.

Some advisors will tell you to always raise less than you need (i.e., be as lean as you possibly can be) because your company’s valuation will always be higher later and you can raise less expensive money later.

Only you can make this decision. It is a delicate balance act.

What does cash flow look like?

Every startup’s cash flow looks like the following graph:

Cash Flow Figure

Notice that in the ideal world a successful company would burn cash at a slower rate of speed after each successive investment round; note that the slopes of subgraphs A, B, and C increase with each round. Eventually, the company sustains itself (at point C in this case) from operations without additional infusions of cash from external sources.

If the entrepreneur waits too long to raise investment round 2, line A will continue its downward trend below the horizontal zero line and the company will be out of business. If the entrepreneur doesn’t wait that long, but long enough so investors can see the company running out of cash soon, investors could just delay their decision.

In Summary

Entrepreneurs have to make their own decisions.

Some prefer to bootstrap using revenues to grow their businesses; this approach maintains ownership among founders and employees, but usually means slower growth because they can be cash-strapped.

Others prefer to raise as much as possible . . . and then spend it as fast as possible, reducing the risk that a competitor will beat them to the market.

Others take a middle of the road position of raising just enough capital, and spending is judiciously.

All a matter of style.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

Dr. Al Davis has published 100+ articles in journals, conferences and trade press, and lectured 2,000+ times in 28 countries. He is the author of 6 books, including the latest, Will You New Start Up Make Money? He is co-founder and CEO of Offtoa, Inc., an internet company that assists entrepreneurs in crafting their business strategies to optimize financial return for themselves and their investors. Formerly, he was founding member of the board of directors of Requisite, Inc., acquired by Rational Software Corporation in 1997, and subsequently acquired by IBM in 2003; co-founder, chairman and CEO of Omni-Vista, Inc.; and vice president at BTG, Inc., a Virginia-based company that went public in 1995, acquired by Titan in 2001, and subsequently acquired by L-3 Communications in 2003.

WYNSUMM Cover

If you’d like to learn if your great business idea will make money, take a look at Will Your New Start Up Make Money?

Photo of Nik Wallenda (Wonderland Walker) courtesy of Kevint3141 (Creative Commons).

5 Steps to Get & Keep Your Startup on Track

If you plan your startup’s growth appropriately, you can use the identical process to keep your startup on track after you launch.

The ‘Get on Track’ Process:

1. During planning, select values for 7 key drivers of your company’s growth.

Tracka. Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC): For those new customers that you attract as the result of your marketing activities, how much does it cost you per customer?

b. Sales Cycle (SC): How many months transpire between your expenditure of marketing dollars and the acquisition of new customers?

c.  Average Order Size (AOS): How much revenue do you expect to generate each time a customer makes a purchase?

d. Periodicity (P): How often will each customer make a purchase?

e. Retention Rate (RR): What percent of existing customers will remain customers at the end of each year?

f.  Viral Coefficient (VC): How many people will each existing customer attract and successfully convert into new customers? This is a one-time conversion; once a customer refers this many new customers, we assume they no longer refer more new customers.

g. Viral Cycle Length (VCL): How many days will transpire between customers becoming new customers and their referrals becoming new customers?

Note that when planning your company, some of the above (e.g. VC and VCL) will have to be just guesstimates . . . and that’s okay.

However, you should be able to make somewhat more intelligent guesses on CAC and SC based on the type of business and the kind of marketing and sales you expect to conduct. And P and RR values should be much easier to estimate from the beginning based on your business.

2. Before you launch your company, verify that the estimates you’ve selected for the 7 key growth drivers will result in a successful company.  That is, there must be significant revenues and profit, and solid returns for all shareholders to be considered successful. If not, adjust the values until the company becomes successful.

3. Launch your company.

The ‘Stay on Track’ Process:

  1. Every month, compare your actuals to your planned values for the 7 key growth drivers. Enter actual values for CAC, SC, AOS, P, RR, VC, and VCL into your plan.
  2. Verify that the actual values for these 7 key growth drivers still result in a successful company – i.e., significant revenues and profits, and solid returns for all shareholders. If so, you are on track! If not, you must change your strategy.

Change Your Strategy

Based on which key growth driver you want to affect, different strategic changes are in order. Many options exist in every case, but here are just a few ideas:

  • To decrease CAC and SC:  Improve your understanding of the target market. Hone your advertisements to the specific pains of your target markets. Focus on the benefits rather than features of your products.  Offer better pricing or better promotions to increase close rates.
  • To increase AOS:  Offer quantity discounts. Improve your product.
  • To increase P:  Offer frequent buyer programs. Improve your product.
  • To increase RR:  Improve your product’s stickiness.
  • To increase VC and decrease VCL:  Offer referral programs, especially ones that incent both the referrer and the new customer. Make products so exciting that they create a buzz. Add features that increase your product’s value to customers.

As you can see, these seven key growth drivers are not only fundamental to planning your startup, they are also fundamental to keeping your startup on track. Not all are easy to estimate, but you can at least determine in the planning stage what values you must achieve to be a viable company.

Once you launch your company, not all seven are easy to measure, but as you progress, they will become easier. Drive your engine towards success!

Alan DavisDavis is a serial entrepreneur currently in his fifth startup. He is also an angel investor and the author of six books.

“On Track” Photo courtesy of Clare Wilkinson (Creative Commons)

How to read an income statement for a startup

How to read an income statement

When you plan a start-up company, you will need to create pro forma financial statements, including the income statement, cash flow statement and balance sheet. A pro forma income statement (also called a profit and loss statement, or P&L statement) is the tool used by businesspeople to determine if a company is profitable (or not) over a period of time. Specifically, it shows what revenues, cost of goods sold, expenses, and profits of a company would be, based on a set of given assumptions. The figure below shows an example. It is a pro forma income statement for the first 5 years of a start-up. Like every income statement, it is organized into 4 horizontal sections:

Revenues

This section shows all primary revenues sources. Companies categorize revenues in this section in a variety of ways, but two common ways of organizing them are (a) by product (or family of pro­ducts), and (b) by market. This enables readers to understand what the reve­nues sources are. The example shown in the figure has revenues organized by product.

Cost of goods sold (aka COGS)

This section shows costs associated with actually producing products that were responsible for the revenues shown in the previous section. This includes the cost of raw materials, shipping the products to customers, and labor costs associated with manu­facturing and maintaining inventory (and labor costs associated with delivering services to the customer, if that is standard practice within the selected industry). Like revenues, COGS are also often organized by product or by market, or sometimes they appear as just one number. The example shown in the figure has COGS organized by product.

Just below this section, COGS are subtracted from revenues to calculate gross profit. It is used to determine how efficiently your company produces its products. It is most mean­ing­ful when compared to other companies in your industry.

Expenses

This section lists all expenses incurred by the company during the indicated period of time, categorized by corporate division: General and Administration, Manufacturing and Production, Marketing and Sales, and Research and Development.

Summary lines on income statement

At the bottom of the income statement are a series of totals and summaries that help you understand the company. They include:

  • EBITDA. Literally, earnings before interest, (income) tax, depre­ciation, and amortization. Calculated by subtracting expenses from gross profit. This is the value that most investors look at when they are trying to determine how well the company is predicted to do. Also, for most industries, it will be one of the primary determinants for valuing the company in the case of an acquisition or public offering.
  • Depreciation. This is calculated from the depreciation schedules and useful lives of major purchases (i.e., fixed assets) you have made. Specifically, it is the sum of all depreciations applied during the period of this income statement (for major purchases made prior to or during this period).
  • EBIT. Earnings before interest and (income) tax. Calculated by subtracting depreciation from EBITDA.
  • Interest. Any interest earned by the company from its assets, or any interest paid by the company.
  • Provision for income taxes. This is calculated by multiplying your income tax rate by EBIT. However, if you had previous years of accumulated losses, they will be subtracted from the current year’s EBIT first. Notice, for example, in the company shown in the figure, no income tax is shown for fiscal year 3, even though it was profitable; losses from its earlier years were subtracted from its profits of year 3.
  • EAT. Earnings after tax. Calculated by subtracting interest and income tax from EBIT.
  • Cum net. Cumulative net earnings. The sum of all EATs for all periods up to and including the current period.

Pro Forma Income Statement for NewCo, Inc.

Fiscal Year 1

Fiscal Year 2

Fiscal Year 3

Fiscal Year 4

Fiscal Year 5

Revenues

   Super New Product

$0

$49,500

$180,000

$540,000

$1,320,000

   Training Course

9,996

33,000

43,200

54,600

66,000

   SaaS Software

0

600,000

1,000,008

1,599,996

2,000,004

   Total Revenue

9,996

682,500

1,223,208

2,194,596

3,386,004

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cost of Goods Sold

 

 

 

 

 

   Super New Product

0

31,356

114,948

341,400

834,540

   Training Course

828

2,496

3,000

3,492

3,996

   SaaS Software

0

0

0

0

0

   Total Cost of Goods Sold

828

33,852

117,948

344,892

838,536

Gross Profit

9,168

648,648

1,105,260

1,849,704

2,547,468

 

 

 

 

 

 

Expenses

 

 

 

 

 

   General & Administrative

249,420

260,904

344,004

362,736

383,940

   Manufacturing & Production

63,504

66,672

140,028

147,024

154,368

   Marketing & Sales

24,996

45,396

52,800

60,204

67,596

   Research & Development

381,000

533,400

280,056

294,036

308,736

   Total Expenses

718,920

906,372

816,888

864,000

914,640

EBITDA

(709,752)

(257,724)

288,372

985,704

1,632,828

   Depreciation

8,328

8,328

13,332

26,670

35,004

EBIT

(718,080)

(266,052)

275,040

959,034

1,597,824

   Interest

0

0

0

0

0

   Provision for Income Taxes

0

0

0

62,486

399,456

Earnings After Tax (EAT)

($718,080)

($266,052)

$275,040

$896,548

$1,198,368

 

 

 

 

 

 

             Cum Net

($718,080)

($984,132)

($709,092)

$187,456

$1,385,824

The above is extracted from my latest book, Will Your New Start Up Make Money? Buy your copy in Kindle at http://www.amazon.com/Will-Your-Start-Make-Money-ebook/dp/B00JOOZQNE or paperback format http://www.amazon.com/Will-Your-Start-Make-Money/dp/0996028307 

Driving Revenue Growth via Viral Strategies

In The Lean Startup [RIE11], Eric Ries points out that only three techniques exist to drive revenue to a company:

  1. Paid. You can spend money with marketing and sales efforts to “buy” customers. See my earlier blog at https://www.offtoa.com/wp/?p=179.
  2. Sticky. You can enhance the customer experience so that current customers purchase more or return more often. See my earlier blog at https://www.offtoa.com/wp/?p=182.
  3. Viral. You can add specific features that encourage current customers to refer others to become customers. This is the subject of the current blog entry.

Whereas sales strategies focus on spending money to attract new customers and sticky strategies focus on retaining existing customers, viral strategies focus on generating new customers by relying on efforts of existing customers. Most social networking sites depend on the viral spread of their customer base; Facebook users, for example, share with their friends, who then become Facebook users. Any company that incorporates a referral program (where a current customer is rewarded for referring a new customer) is using a viral method as part of their business strategy. Other examples are Tupper­ware, where customers sell products to new customers at Tupperware parties; and Skype, where customers encourage colleagues to join so they can communicate. 

The above extracted from my latest book, Will Your New Start Up Make Money? Buy your copy in Kindle or paperback format at http://www.amazon.com/Will-Your-Start-Make-Money-ebook/dp/B00JOOZQNE.

Driving Revenue Growth via Sticky Strategies

Sales and marketing strategies (as described in my previous blog) focus on spending money to drive new customers to buy product. Sticky strategies are designed to increase the lifetime value of each existing customer (called CLV, customer lifetime value). These strategies include concepts such as (1) upselling, where you make efforts to convert customers buying lower priced goods and services into those buying higher priced goods and services; (2) enhanced customer experience, so fewer customers cease being customers (i.e., the goal is to raise retention rate), and (3) rewards programs, to reward customers for frequent purchases.

Freemium pricing is a special case of upselling in which you offer some services for free and entice a subset of them to upgrade to a richer set of features at a premium price. The philosophy is three­fold: (a) once some customers see how great the subset of features are, they will want the full set, (b) once customers experience what a great company it is, they will want to do (real) business with you, and (c) you have access to the non-paying customers’ eyeballs and contact information, and so you can carefully “sell up” to them.

Treacy and Wiersema [TRE93]’s concept of customer in­ti­macy is another technique for maximizing long term value of customers, as opposed to deriving the most out of any one transaction with customers. Start-ups can create strong customer loyalty by implementing cus­tomer intimacy as one of their core practices. Established companies with this strategy include the Broadmoor Hotel, Nordstrom, and Whole Foods.

The above extracted from my latest book, Will Your New Start Up Make Money? Buy your copy in Kindle or paperback format at http://www.amazon.com/Will-Your-Start-Make-Money-ebook/dp/B00JOOZQNE.

Driving Revenue Growth via Paid Marketing/Sales

As  Eric Ries points out in The Lean Startup [RIE11], only three exist to drive revenue to a company:

  1. Paid. You can spend money with marketing and sales efforts to “buy” customers.
  2. Sticky. You can enhance the customer experience so that current customers purchase more or return more often.
  3. Viral. Current customers can refer others to become customers.

This posting is about the first. My next two posts will about the subsequent two.

Many books and articles exist that teach readers how to improve their ability to sell using a specific sales strategy. The purpose of the current post is to emphasize that a start-up must decide how it will sell products to its market. Here are just a few possibilities:

  • Inside direct salesforce. You hire employees who communicate with poten­tial leads via phone or email and attempt to close a sale from their office. In the case of market-push, salespeople contact potential customers (leads are usually acquired by marketing personnel). In the case of market-pull, poten­tial customers contact the company (as the result of marketing-cre­ated advertising, email broadcasts, or internet presence). The sales model for physical retail stores is generally an example of a market-pull inside direct sales. Telesales is an example of market-push inside direct sales.
  • Outside direct salesforce. You hire employees who meet potential leads (usually acquired by marketing personnel) and attempt to close a sale in person.
  • Sales channels. You retain services of another company (often one that knows the market well) which then distributes/sells your product to end customers. This other company becomes your customer, and, depending on industry, is called a distributor, reseller, channel partner, wholesaler, or integrator. Your arrange­ment with this company could be exclusive (for your product or for a particular target market) or non-exclusive.
  • Internet sales. Many companies, both in business-to-business and business-to-consumer, rely on their websites to sell products and services in the same way that Sears relied on catalogs to sell its products in the early 20th century. In this model, customers find the company’s products via search engines or are drawn to the website via advertising, and execute the purchase over the web without salesperson involvement. Search Engine Optimization (SEO) techniques enable web visitors to easily find your website.
  • Proposals. In some industries, customers make their needs known via issuance of a request for proposal (RFP), and the company responds with a formal proposal containing detailed specifications of products to be delivered along with a price quotation. This is the approach used by almost all government agencies at all levels.

The above extracted from my latest book, Will Your New Start Up Make Money? Buy your copy in Kindle or paperback formats at http://www.amazon.com/Will-Your-Start-Make-Money-ebook/dp/B00JOOZQNE.